Nvidia’s Worst Nightmare? Why OpenAI is Betting Billions on AMD to Power Its Next Move

Close-up of AMD Instinct MI450 GPU chip with AI neural network overlay, illustrating advanced AI hardware technology powering next-gen AI infrastructure.
Close-up view of the AMD Instinct MI450 GPU chip, central to AMD and OpenAI’s 6-gigawatt AI compute partnership launching in late 2026.

On October 6, 2025, AMD and OpenAI announced a landmark multi-year strategic partnership under which OpenAI committed to deploying 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, starting with an initial 1 gigawatt rollout of the AMD Instinct MI450 series GPUs in the second half of 2026. This deal marks one of the largest AI infrastructure commitments outside of Nvidia and signals AMD’s emergence as a major player in the AI compute hardware space, ready to compete directly with Nvidia’s dominance.

Key Details of the Agreement

  • 6 Gigawatts of AMD GPUs: OpenAI will deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs over the coming years to power its next-generation AI infrastructure with the first 1 gigawatt deployment slated for late 2026.
  • Multi-generation collaboration: The partnership includes a multi-generation, multi-year collaboration on hardware and software optimization, building on previous cooperation around AMD’s MI300X and MI350X series GPUs.
  • Option for OpenAI equity: OpenAI has an option to acquire up to 160 million shares of AMD stock, representing roughly a 10% stake, with vesting tied to deployment milestones and AMD’s share price reaching target levels, including a final vest at $600 per share.
  • Rack-scale AI solutions: The deal involves extensive collaboration around rack-scale AI compute solutions to scale OpenAI’s AI demands efficiently.

How This Deal Positions AMD as an AI Infrastructure Powerhouse

AMD’s partnership with OpenAI positions the company as a critical player in the AI compute infrastructure space, directly challenging Nvidia’s long-standing market dominance. With Nvidia controlling about 80% of the AI accelerator market and boasting a $4.16 trillion market cap, AMD’s $252 billion valuation is set for significant expansion fueled by this deal, which is anticipated to generate tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue for AMD.

AMD’s MI450 GPUs are said to outperform Nvidia’s comparable offerings (Nvidia Rubin CPX) through advanced hardware and software improvements co-developed with OpenAI. This elevates AMD as a serious alternative for AI infrastructure, especially as AI model inference workloads diversify chip requirements beyond Nvidia’s GPUs.

Giving OpenAI a Strategic Stake in AMD

Beyond GPU supply, the agreement grants OpenAI the option to purchase significant equity—up to about 10% of AMD shares—vested on crucial deployment and share price milestones. This aligns OpenAI’s long-term success tightly with AMD’s financial performance and stock growth potential, with vesting contingent on AMD’s share price rising significantly, up to $600 per share.

Market Reaction and Surge in AMD Shares

AMD shares surged dramatically between 23% to 34% following the announcement, with trading prices jumping from around $165 pre-announcement to over $220, marking the largest single-day gain in AMD’s stock price since April 2016. This surge added roughly $80 billion to AMD’s market capitalization, reflecting investor enthusiasm and renewed confidence in AMD’s AI growth trajectory.

Revenue Projections and Strategic Importance of AI Growth

Analysts and AMD executives project this partnership could add tens of billions of dollars in annual incremental revenue, with estimates suggesting over $100 billion in cumulative revenue over the next four years. AMD’s CFO Jean Hu emphasized that this deal is expected to be highly accretive to the company’s earnings per share, while AMD’s CEO Lisa Su highlighted the strategic alignment in accelerating AI infrastructure buildout at massive scale.

AI growth is now a cornerstone of AMD’s business model, complementing its traditional strengths in gaming and data centers. The partnership underpins AMD’s ambition to capture a larger share of the booming AI market, shifting its image from a strong GPU challenger to a foundational AI infrastructure provider.

Executive Perspectives

  • Lisa Su, AMD CEO: “This partnership brings the best of AMD and OpenAI together to create a true win-win enabling the world’s most ambitious AI buildout and advancing the entire AI ecosystem.”
  • Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO: “This deal is a major step in building the compute capacity needed to realize AI’s full potential,” emphasizing the critical role of this collaboration in scaling AI infrastructure.

Comparing AMD’s Deal with Nvidia’s Prior Agreement

Nvidia secured a $100 billion deal with OpenAI earlier in 2025, reaffirming its dominant position in the AI chip market. However, AMD’s multibillion-dollar deal marks a significant challenge to Nvidia by diversifying OpenAI’s chip suppliers and advocating competition. This deal reflects a shift in the competitive AI hardware landscape, potentially reshaping market dynamics as AMD emerges as a formidable rival supplying scalable, high-performance AI GPUs.

AspectAMD DealNvidia Deal
Deal ValueTens of billions projected (exact figure undisclosed)$100 billion
OpenAI GPU Capacity6 gigawatts over multiple yearsLarge scale, undisclosed precise wattage
GPU SeriesInstinct MI450 series and future generationsNvidia GPUs based on advanced architecture
OpenAI Equity OptionUp to 10% stake in AMD sharesNo equity stake disclosed
Market ImpactShare surge 23-34%, $80B+ market cap increaseCemented Nvidia dominance

Long-term Impact on AMD’s Valuation and Stock Outlook

This partnership is a turning point for AMD’s long-term valuation and investor sentiment. The deal demonstrates AMD’s growing capability and credibility in AI infrastructure, attracting strong investor confidence reflected in surging stock prices. Analysts forecast steady upside for AMD stocks fueled by continued AI demand and strategic partnerships.

However, key risks remain:

  • Supply chain constraints: Meeting large-scale GPU deployment schedules depends on overcoming manufacturing and supply challenges.
  • Geopolitical factors: Global tensions and trade restrictions could impact AMD’s ability to deliver chips at scale.
  • Execution risks: Delays or failure to hit milestones could temper market enthusiasm.

Conclusion

The AMD-OpenAI partnership announced in October 2025 is a defining moment in the AI chip industry, positioning AMD as a critical competitor to Nvidia in powering the AI revolution. By deploying 6 gigawatts of cutting-edge MI450 GPUs and integrating multi-generational collaboration with OpenAI, AMD is set to reap substantial financial benefits while accelerating AI capabilities worldwide. This deal reshapes competitive dynamics, boosts AMD’s market valuation, and signals a more diversified future for AI compute infrastructure.


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