Gold at ₹1,32,000: Is Dhanteras 2025 the Most Expensive Time to Buy in History?

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Dhanteras 2025 gold coins and jewelry against rising price chart
Gold coins and jewelry shine amid record-high gold rates on Dhanteras 2025, reflecting cultural tradition and investment trends.

Dhanteras 2025 marked a historic milestone for India’s gold market as the auspicious festival traditionally symbolizing prosperity unfolded against unprecedented gold prices. On October 18, 2025, Indians across the country celebrated Dhanteras with the customary tradition of purchasing gold and silver—a practice deeply embedded in cultural beliefs that these precious metals invite Goddess Lakshmi’s blessings and financial abundance. However, this year carried a contemporary twist: gold prices surged to record levels, with 24-karat gold crossing Rs 1.34 lakh per 10 grams in major cities, setting new benchmarks and redefining the economics of festive gold buying.​

Gold prices have surged dramatically from Dhanteras 2023 to 2025, with 24-karat gold rising from Rs 60,097 to Rs 1,32,400 per 10 grams, marking a remarkable 120% increase over two years

Gold prices have surged dramatically from Dhanteras 2023 to 2025, with 24-karat gold rising from Rs 60,097 to Rs 1,32,400 per 10 grams, marking a remarkable 120% increase over two years

Despite these extraordinary price levels—representing a staggering 62.7% year-over-year increase from Dhanteras 2024—demand remained remarkably robust, with estimated sales reaching Rs 60,000 crore during the festival. The resilience of this demand reflects the enduring cultural significance of gold in India while simultaneously highlighting profound shifts in consumer behavior, with buyers increasingly opting for lightweight jewelry, gold coins, and alternative investment vehicles like gold ETFs and sovereign gold bonds.​​

Record Gold Prices Across Indian Cities

The gold price landscape across India during Dhanteras 2025 revealed both uniformity and subtle regional variations. In Delhi, 24-karat gold reached Rs 1,32,930 per 10 grams on Dhanteras day, marking an increase of Rs 3,350 from the previous day, while 22-karat gold stood at Rs 1,21,860. Mumbai saw 24-karat gold priced at Rs 1,32,780 per 10 grams, with 22-karat gold at Rs 1,21,710. These rates, though slightly adjusted downward from Friday’s all-time peak of Rs 1,34,800, still represented historic highs that fundamentally altered purchasing decisions for millions of festive buyers.​

Kolkata mirrored Mumbai’s pricing, with 24-karat gold at Rs 1,32,780 and 22-karat at Rs 1,21,710, while Chennai recorded marginally higher rates at Rs 1,33,090 for 24-karat and Rs 1,22,000 for 22-karat gold. The consistency across metropolitan centers—Bangalore, Hyderabad, Pune, and Ahmedabad all clustered within a narrow Rs 300 range for 24-karat gold—underscores the integration of India’s gold market, where pricing is primarily determined by international benchmarks, rupee-dollar exchange rates, and standardized import duties.​

The historical trajectory reveals extraordinary momentum behind the 2025 gold rally. On Dhanteras 2024 (October 29, 2024), 24-karat gold was priced at Rs 81,400 per 10 grams, meaning the year-over-year increase amounted to Rs 51,000 or 62.65%—the highest annual appreciation recorded for a Dhanteras-to-Dhanteras comparison in recent memory. Compared to Dhanteras 2023 (November 10, 2023), when gold traded at Rs 60,097 per 10 grams, the two-year gain exceeded 120%, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 47.57%. This sustained upward trajectory established gold as one of the best-performing asset classes in India during this period, substantially outpacing the Nifty 50 stock index, which gained only about 5-6% during the same timeframe.​

What’s Driving Gold Prices to Historic Heights?

The extraordinary ascent of gold prices through 2025 reflects a confluence of global macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, monetary policy shifts, and structural changes in central bank behavior. At the international level, gold surpassed $4,300 per troy ounce during mid-October 2025, representing gains exceeding 60% for the year and marking the metal’s strongest annual performance since the tumultuous periods of 1979-1980. This global rally translated directly into higher domestic prices in India, amplified by concurrent depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar.​

Currency dynamics have played a pivotal role in the domestic price structure. India imports approximately 86% of its gold requirements, making the rupee-dollar exchange rate a critical determinant of local prices. When the rupee weakens—as it has consistently throughout 2025—the cost of gold imports rises correspondingly, creating upward pressure on domestic retail prices independent of international gold price movements. Over the past 30 years, gold delivered annualized returns of 7.6% in US dollar terms but 11% in rupee terms, with the 3.4 percentage point differential attributable to rupee depreciation.​

Geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand constitute another fundamental driver of the rally. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-China trade frictions, and concerns about a potential US government shutdown all contributed to elevated risk perceptions that traditionally benefit gold. As Darshan Desi, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, explained, “Gold prices continue to surge, reaching new record highs as concerns about a potential credit crisis in the US outweigh optimism. A weak US dollar along with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also supporting the rally”.​

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory has emerged as perhaps the single most influential policy variable affecting gold prices. Following an extended period of elevated rates, the Fed began its easing cycle with a 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, 2025, with market participants pricing in additional cuts with probabilities exceeding 80%. Gold, which yields no interest, becomes increasingly attractive in low-rate environments because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets diminishes. Goldman Sachs projects prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, while Bank of America forecasts $5,000.​

Central bank gold accumulation represents a structural shift with profound implications for long-term price dynamics. Global central banks have dramatically accelerated gold purchases as part of strategic reserve diversification away from US dollar assets. India’s Reserve Bank itself reached a historic milestone in October 2025 when its gold reserves crossed $100 billion for the first time, reaching $102.365 billion and accounting for 14.7% of total foreign exchange reserves—the highest proportion since 1996-97.​

How Consumers Adapted to Record-High Prices

The interplay between record-high prices and sustained demand during Dhanteras 2025 reveals sophisticated consumer adaptation strategies that balance cultural imperatives with financial pragmatism. Overall gold sales during Dhanteras declined 10-15% in volume terms compared to the previous year, yet total sales value surged by over 25%, reaching an estimated Rs 60,000 crore. This divergence between volume and value metrics captures the market dynamic: buyers purchased less gold by weight but collectively spent more money, with average transaction values rising 20-25%.​

The shift toward lightweight jewelry and gold coins emerged as the defining behavioral trend of Dhanteras 2025. Industry executives consistently reported that gold jewelry demand declined approximately 30% year-over-year in volume terms, with consumers pivoting toward minimalist designs and smaller items. Surendra Mehta, secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, noted that “gold jewellery demand took a hit with record-high prices, dropping nearly 30% from last year, but coins and bars were flying off the shelves”. This preference for coins and small bars reflected multiple motivations: lower making charges than jewelry (typically 10-20% of gold value), greater liquidity when needed, and pure investment exposure without design premiums.​​

Generational differences in gold purchasing behavior became increasingly apparent during Dhanteras 2025. Younger consumers, particularly millennials and Gen Z buyers, demonstrated distinct preferences for 14-karat and 18-karat gold over traditional 22-karat and 24-karat options, seeking designs that balance aesthetic appeal with affordability. At CaratLane, 14K gold now contributes approximately 35% of total revenue. This reframing resonates with younger demographics who prioritize versatility and everyday wearability over the traditional approach of purchasing heavy gold jewelry destined for the locker.​

Silver emerged as an unexpected star of Dhanteras 2025, with sales patterns suggesting buyers sought precious metal exposure at more accessible price points. Silver coin sales surged 35-40% year-over-year, with overall silver value more than doubling despite record prices that reached Rs 1,77,000 per kilogram before moderating to Rs 1,70,000 on Dhanteras day. GJC Vice Chairman Avinash Gupta noted that “the 35-40% surge in silver coin sales was led by Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, where buyers opted for budget-friendly investments and gifting”. Silver’s stellar price performance—up 81% year-over-year—outpaced even gold’s remarkable gains.​

The Rise of Digital Gold Investment

The rise of digital and paper gold instruments represents another significant dimension of adaptive consumer behavior. Gold ETFs in India recorded their largest-ever monthly inflow in September 2025 at Rs 8,363 crore (up 578% year-over-year from Rs 1,232 crore in September 2024), pushing total assets under management to Rs 90,135 crore—a 126% increase from the previous year. This dramatic surge reflects urban investors’ growing comfort with paper gold exposure, which eliminates storage costs and purity concerns while providing liquidity and portfolio diversification benefits.​

Indian gold ETFs attracted $2.18 billion in inflows through 2025, surpassing all previous annual records, as investors sought alternatives to physical jewelry amid elevated prices. Vikram Dhawan, head of commodities at Nippon India Mutual Fund, explained that “investors who previously had little or no allocation to gold are now increasing their exposure, putting significant money into the metal and driving inflows into ETFs”.​

Sovereign Gold Bonds commanded significant attention during Dhanteras 2025, with existing bondholders enjoying spectacular returns. Investors in the SGB 2017-18 Series III, which matured on October 16, 2025, realized an extraordinary 338% absolute return, with bonds issued at Rs 2,866 per gram redeeming at Rs 12,567—a gain of Rs 9,701 per gram excluding the 2.5% annual interest payments. Similarly, the SGB 2020-21 Series VII offered investors a 153% return with redemption at Rs 12,792 per unit against the issue price of Rs 5,051.​

These outsized returns generated tremendous investor interest in SGBs, but with no new issuances available, prospective buyers turned to secondary markets where existing bonds traded at significant premiums—in some cases 20-32% above spot gold prices. Market experts cautioned that purchasing SGBs at such elevated premiums could substantially erode returns if gold prices stabilize or decline.​

Expert Forecasts: Where Are Gold Prices Headed?

Market analysts and commodity experts approached Dhanteras 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook. The consensus view projected gold prices in India would trade between Rs 1,20,000 and Rs 1,35,000 per 10 grams through the remainder of 2025, with potential further appreciation to Rs 1,30,000-Rs 1,45,000 in the first half of 2026.​

NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura Securities, offered particularly bullish medium-term projections, stating that “Starting the next rally from Dhanteras 2025, the unchartered territory of $5000 per ounce / Rs 1,50,000 per ten grams could be in 2026”. This forecast aligns with international bank projections from institutions including Goldman Sachs ($4,900/oz), Bank of America ($5,000/oz), and ANZ ($4,600/oz peak by June 2026).​

The durability of this underlying support stems from multiple reinforcing factors that experts expect will persist through 2026. Geopolitical tensions show no signs of abating, with ongoing conflicts, trade disputes, and sanctions regimes continuing to drive safe-haven demand. Central bank purchases remain structurally positive as reserve managers worldwide pursue diversification away from dollar assets. The Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting trajectory should continue providing accommodative conditions favorable to non-yielding assets like gold.​

However, expert commentary also highlighted potential headwinds. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, identified “easing geopolitical tensions, changes in rate cut expectations, outflows in investment demand and rising growth prospects” as factors that could cap gold’s advance. A hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve would increase real yields and strengthen the dollar—both traditionally negative for gold prices.​

Smart Strategies for Gold Buyers and Investors

Navigating the gold market at these elevated price levels requires a balanced approach that accounts for both the compelling fundamental case for continued appreciation and the inherent risks of buying near all-time highs. For buyers motivated primarily by cultural considerations and festive traditions, experts generally recommend proceeding with purchases aligned with genuine needs and budget constraints.​

For strategic investors viewing gold as a portfolio component, several approaches merit consideration. Dollar-cost averaging through systematic investment plans in gold ETFs or sovereign gold bonds can mitigate timing risk and smooth entry points across multiple price levels. Given gold’s demonstrated value as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge, allocation recommendations typically range from 10-15% of investment portfolios.​

The choice between physical gold, digital gold, ETFs, and sovereign gold bonds deserves careful analysis. Physical gold in the form of jewelry carries the highest total cost when making charges, GST, and potential storage expenses are considered. Gold coins and bars eliminate design premiums while providing tangible ownership. Gold ETFs offer maximum liquidity, transparent pricing, professional custody, and ease of portfolio integration, making them optimal for pure investment exposure. Digital gold platforms provide fractional ownership starting from minimal amounts, democratizing access while ensuring purity and insured storage.​

Sovereign gold bonds, despite secondary market premiums, continue offering unique advantages. The 2.5% annual interest payment provides income that physical gold cannot generate. The capital gains tax exemption at maturity creates substantial tax efficiency compared to physical gold or ETFs. The sovereign guarantee from the Government of India eliminates credit risk and storage concerns. However, elevated premiums currently commanded in secondary markets necessitate careful evaluation.​

Tax planning considerations warrant attention, as different gold instruments face varying tax treatments. Physical gold and gold ETFs held for more than 36 months qualify for long-term capital gains tax at 20% with indexation benefits. Sovereign gold bonds enjoy the most favorable treatment: capital gains are entirely tax-exempt if held to maturity. Digital gold taxation follows physical gold rules, while jewelry purchases incur 3% GST.​

Gold’s Cultural Significance Meets Modern Investment Reality

The Dhanteras 2025 experience powerfully illustrates gold’s unique position at the intersection of cultural tradition and economic rationality in Indian society. The festival itself, honoring Lord Dhanvantari and Goddess Lakshmi, carries deep spiritual significance that transcends purely economic considerations. The belief that gold and silver purchased on this auspicious day invite divine blessings and financial abundance creates cultural imperatives that persist across generations.​

The wedding-related dimension of Indian gold demand adds another layer of cultural significance with profound economic implications. India’s wedding industry generates massive gold demand concentrated during specific seasonal windows. The 2024-2025 wedding season’s 47 auspicious dates between October and March created sustained structural demand independent of short-term price fluctuations. Wedding-related purchases account for approximately 50-60% of annual jewelry demand in India.​

Gold’s role as an accessible, liquid savings instrument for households without formal banking relationships creates another dimension of India’s unique gold demand profile. In rural areas and among less affluent urban populations, gold serves as the primary savings vehicle—a form of forced savings that can be liquidated during emergencies or pledged for loans when cash flow needs arise. This functional role explains why India, despite being the world’s second-largest gold consumer, imports 86% of consumption despite import duties and government efforts to curb such imports.​

Conclusion: A Landmark Dhanteras for India’s Gold Market

Dhanteras 2025 will be remembered as a watershed moment in India’s millennia-old relationship with gold—a festival when tradition met transformation, cultural imperatives collided with economic pragmatism, and record prices catalyzed innovations in how Indians engage with their most cherished asset. The statistical contours tell a compelling story: gold prices crossing Rs 1.34 lakh per 10 grams, representing 62.7% year-over-year appreciation; sales volumes declining 10-15% even as total values surged 25% to reach Rs 60,000 crore; a dramatic pivot toward lightweight jewelry, coins, and investment products; and gold ETF inflows reaching all-time records.​

The resilience of demand despite unprecedented price levels reflects gold’s enduring dual role in Indian society as both cultural imperative and economic asset. Yet the specific manifestations of this demand increasingly diverge from historical patterns, with younger buyers favoring lightweight designs and lower karats, digital instruments gaining legitimacy as substitutes for physical holdings, and investment motivations increasingly competing with jewelry acquisition as primary purchase drivers.​

Looking forward, the outlook for gold prices through 2026 remains constructive, with expert consensus projecting Indian prices will range between Rs 1,30,000-Rs 1,45,000 per 10 grams in the first half of the year, potentially testing Rs 1,50,000 by year-end if bullish scenarios materialize. This projection rests on the persistence of structural tailwinds including accommodative monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical tensions, continued central bank accumulation, and rupee weakness amplifying international price gains.​

For consumers navigating this environment, the key takeaway is that gold purchases need not be all-or-nothing propositions but can represent nuanced decisions balancing cultural observance, financial planning, and market timing considerations. Strategic investors should consider systematic accumulation strategies that average entry points across time and maintain discipline during both rallies and corrections.​

What remains clear is that gold continues to shine brightly in the Indian consciousness and investment landscape—a timeless symbol of prosperity now navigating the crosscurrents of record prices, evolving consumer preferences, technological innovation in financial products, and uncertain global macroeconomic conditions. Dhanteras 2025, with its unique combination of cultural celebration and financial inflection point, perfectly encapsulates this dynamic moment. The tradition endures, but its expression is evolving—and understanding this evolution is essential for anyone seeking to engage thoughtfully with India’s gold market, whether as cultural participant, astute investor, or curious observer of one of the world’s most fascinating asset class stories.

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